Fukushima (big problem) and TPP (big opportunity)

view across Hama-Rikyu Garden to one of Tokyo's newer business districts

Japan has done a very good job of cleaning up after the terrible tsunami that hit Fukushima following the massive 2011 earthquake, but that is just the rubble.  The nuclear reactor is still extremely dangerous and may always be. 

The expectation is that it will take 40 years to decommission the nuclear plant.  All the water is contaminated--rain, run-off, water inside the plant.  Every drop that passes through the air and ground is radioactive.  The company that owns Fukushima has built huge containment tanks to hold the contaminated water, but at some point even they won't be enough.  Some companies, particularly U.S. environmental companies, see this as a great opportunity--helping to clean up and decommission the plant.

The entire area of Fukushima and about 20 miles on all sides is still closed. Former residents were initially housed in temporary housing, but most have scattered, seeking homes and jobs elsewhere in Japan.  Some, however, still have nowhere to go and live in the very temporary homes provided by the government right after the tsunami.

Nuclear power used to provide 25% of Japan's energy, but today every one of its 48 nuclear plants is still shut down.  PM Abe wants to restart some of the plants that have been retrofitted with new safety equipment, but the public is very leery.  Just today, a judge prohibited reopening one nuclear plant in an area that was the center of the nuclear power industry.  The cost of energy is up 20% from 2011, further exacerbating Japan's economic problems.

That is the huge problem side of the economy (one of the huge problems).  On the positive side, if it finally comes to fruition and, particularly, if Congress approves the treaty, is the Trans Pacific Partnership.  For Japan, this would require opening some heavily protected sectors, like agriculture.  But, this is what the PM wants to do anyway, so the treaty would help him accomplish that.

TPP has been under negotiation for 4 years.  It includes countries such as Chile, Peru, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, Brunei and the U.S.  There haven't been lots of trade agreements that set the ground rules for international trade.  TPP is designed to do that.  The U.S. wants trade to operate under our rules, not China's rules.  The participating countries want the same thing.

Smaller countries are worried about China, not in the sense of being anti-China, but because of its muscle-flexing in the region.  Like-minded countries want to set the trade rules for the region, eventually forcing China to comply in order to participate.  The relationships with China are productive, but complicated.

Japan used to be the big guy in Asia, but not now, which is why they joined TPP.  This agreement is key to Japan's managing its relationship with China.

With Russia, Japan works hard to maintain a good relationship.  They want the northernmost Japanese islands Russia seized after World War II to be returned to Japan, primarily because of potential energy and fishery development, not to mention national pride.  Russia is also a very important supplier of energy to Japan, particularly since the shutdown of the nuclear plants.  They don't like Russia's behavior in the world and have joined in sanctions against Russia, but hope this will not be permanent.